ALL AGRI #Cocoa Supply

The global cocoa market in 2025 is a study in contradictions: prices hover near $9,500 per ton after peaking at $12,900 in December 2024, yet demand remains stubbornly strong despite the economic headwinds. This paradox underscores a structural transformation in the cocoa supply chain, driven by climate shocks, trade policy turbulence, and a reordering of global demand. For investors, the challenge lies in distinguishing between transient volatility and enduring shifts—while avoiding the pitfalls of overexposure to a market still grappling with its own fragility.

Cocoa prices have seen strength in the past week from concern about dry weather in West Africa that threatens the region's cocoa crops. There has been little to no precipitation over the past few weeks in the cocoa-growing areas of the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which could negatively impact the development of flowers and cherelles on cocoa plants. According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season remains below the 30-year average, and combined with high temperatures, risks hurting cocoa pod development for the main crop harvest that starts in October.