Africa - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights Please mention the Source: https://www.indexbox.io/blog/wheat-africa-market-overview-2024-6/

IndexBox has just published a new report: Africa - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. The wheat market in Africa is on an upward consumption trend, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.7% in volume and +2.7% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market is expected to grow to 84M tons and $36.4B in nominal prices, maintaining its current trend pattern. 

Market Forecast 

Driven by increasing demand for wheat in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 84M tons by the end of 2035. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $36.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption 

Africa's Consumption of Wheat After three years of decline, consumption of wheat increased by 8.6% to 70M tons in 2024. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The volume of consumption peaked at 72M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum. The size of the wheat market in Africa rose markedly to $27B in 2024, surging by 14% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a pronounced contraction. 

The level of consumption peaked at $44.4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure. Consumption By Country The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Egypt (20M tons), Morocco (11M tons) and Algeria (9.1M tons), together comprising 57% of total consumption. Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, Tunisia, Tanzania, Angola and Sudan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Angola (with a CAGR of +73.0%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, Egypt ($7.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Morocco ($3.5B). It was followed by Algeria. 

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Egypt amounted to +5.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Morocco (+0.3% per year) and Algeria (-0.0% per year). The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2024 were Morocco (293 kg per person), Tunisia (223 kg per person) and Algeria (194 kg per person). From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Angola (with a CAGR of +67.4%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. 

Production Africa's Production of Wheat 

In 2024, production of wheat in Africa dropped slightly to 26M tons, leveling off at the year before. Overall, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 21%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 31M tons. From 2022 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures. In value terms, wheat production stood at $9.5B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 32%. 

As a result, production attained the peak level of $10.7B. From 2022 to 2024, production growth failed to regain momentum. Production By Country The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Egypt (9.7M tons), Ethiopia (5.8M tons) and Morocco (3.4M tons), with a combined 72% share of total production. Algeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Sudan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%. From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Sudan (with a CAGR of +4.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. Yield The average wheat yield shrank modestly to 2.8 tons per ha in 2024, falling by -2.4% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the yield increased by 27%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 3.2 tons per ha. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the wheat yield remained at a somewhat lower figure. 

Imports 

Africa's Imports of Wheat In 2024, approx. 45M tons of wheat were imported in Africa; growing by 15% on the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 20%. The volume of import peaked at 46M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country 

The purchases of the three major importers of wheat, namely Egypt, Morocco and Algeria, represented more than half of total import. It was distantly followed by Kenya (3.1M tons), achieving a 6.9% share of total imports. The following importers - Tunisia (2M tons), South Africa (1.7M tons), Tanzania (1.7M tons), Angola (1.4M tons), Sudan (0.9M tons) and Cameroon (0.8M tons) - together made up 19% of total imports. 

Exports 

Africa's Exports of Wheat Wheat exports surged to 802K tons in 2024, picking up by 48% on 2023. In general, exports enjoyed a strong increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 86%. The volume of export peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term. 

Exports By Country 

In 2024, South Africa (652K tons) was the largest exporter of wheat, committing 81% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Mauritius (84K tons), achieving a 10% share of total exports. Djibouti (24K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders. 

Export Prices By Country 

The export price in Africa stood at $285 per ton in 2024, which is down by -30.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a noticeable shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the export price increased by 21%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $435 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.